So about that Falcon Heavy launch we were talking about…

What was suppose to be a week full of SpaceX launches has turned into well, not much. Between weather and lengthly technical delays, SpaceX’s chances of a 100 launch year might have just slipped their grasps.

The Space Force’s spaceplane could be grounded for a bit

On Monday, we were expecting upwards to four launches from SpaceX and would have brought the company up to 96 total launches for the year. On Monday we expected two launches, USSF-52, a Falcon Heavy launch with the Air Force‘s X-37B spaceplane on top, and a Falcon 9 Starlink mission. This was to be followed by another Starlink mission on a Falcon 9 from California on Wednesday.

The Florida Starlink launch was moved back a day but then delayed due to unfavorable weather. A trend that continued throughout the week, leading to a new launch date for Sunday (tomorrow). Specifically a 35% chance of it happening, per Space Launch Delta 45’s weather report.

As for the Falcon Heavy, well that’s a bit more troublesome. After being pushed from the weekend into Monday for “additional prelaunch check outs,” it was delayed again due to “a ground side issue.” A rare occurrence for SpaceX that hasn’t had a mechanical delay for the majority of its 90 launches of the Falcon 9 and Heavy rockets in 2023.

The USSF-52 launch was then delayed indefinitely as teamed worked on fixing whatever went wrong. A sign that the delay would be a long one came when SpaceX lowered the rocket and rolled it back into its processing facility. SpaceX then came out and announced a launch date for no earlier than December 28.

We can’t know for certain what has broken but for the rocket to be sent back to the Horizontal Integration Facility and an almost two week delay, it has to be pretty serious. Either something at the pad, on the rocket, or both, needs replacing and it isn’t a quick one.

The California Starlink mission, which is expected to carry the first batch of T-Mobile supported satellites, also ran into a long delay. The launch was pushed from Thursday, to Friday, then all the way back to be alongside the Falcon Heavy on the 28th. This time no reasons were given, so we don’t know if this was due to weather or something technical.

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A crowded January launch schedule

With the Falcon Heavy’s delay into the last week of the year, this lines up LC-39A to see a busy list of launches ahead of it.

SpaceX’s NASA side pad is the primary pad for Dragon missions, crew and cargo. It is also the only pad capable of launching the Falcon Heavy rocket, which consists of two Falcon 9 boosters strapped to the side of a center core Falcon booster.

SpaceX will have as many as three missions from LC-39A, depending on a list of factors. After USSF-52’s launch will be Axiom-3. According to a SpaceX official, the company has yet to pick a pad for the launch. The launcher recently completed a crew tower and access arm at SLC-40, allowing it to be used as a backup if LC-39A isn’t available.

Slated to launch just a few days after Axiom-3, Intuitive Machine‘s IM-1 mission is also slated to launch from LC-39A. Depending on the integration facilities available at each pad, this one might be able to be moved. Although what Moon mission doesn’t want to take off from the same pad Apollo did?

The final mission we have slated for LC-39A in January is a cargo mission to the ISS but this time not a Dragon. The first SpaceX-Northrop Grumman Cygnus mission is expected to launch no earlier than January 29. The most up to date information from NASA details the launch taking place from the historic launch site but I see no reason why this couldn’t be moved to SLC-40.

One or more of these missions are going to have to be moved. While SpaceX has been lightning fast turning over SLC-40 between missions, movement between Falcon Heavy and crewed missions is a much longer process. Throw a few other high priority and sensitive missions in the bunch and timelines begin to stretch.